基于系统动力学的防空作战指挥关键因素分析

防空作战指挥效能的高低,对整个防空作战结局有着重要的影响.基于系统动力学的方法对防空作战指挥效能进行评估,分析了影响指挥效能的关键因素.进而提出加强对防空作战指挥不确定决策方法的研究和优化防空作战指挥体制两项对策措施以提高指挥效能.     

基于组合熵权的联合作战目标选择模型研究

针对作战中目标选择与排序问题,分析确定了8种在联合作战条件下影响目标选择关键因素。在此基础上应用多属性决策理论,以组合熵权系数确定指标权重,建立了目标选择模型。模型简洁易于实现,并且在决策中有效减少了主观随意性。最后通过仿真实例说明了模型的有效性和可操作性。     

OLAP技术在器材保障决策支持系统中的应用

为弥补基于模型库和方法库的器材保障决策支持系统的不足,探讨利用OLAP技术处理数据的方法。结果表明,利用OLAP技术从多角度、多侧面观察数据,将为我军器材保障决策的科学化提供强大的支持。     

基于风险评估的检测与修理决策模型

研究了基于故障风险的检测与维修策略，运用威布尔比例风险模型建立系统故障率与工作时间及所处状态的关系。分析了两类基于间接状态信息维修决策的风险，建立了系统检测及维修策略的决策树，通过比较检测与不检测情况下的期望费用确定最优的检测间隔。算例表明，所提出的方法能够有效控制系统运行风险，降低系统运行费用。     

装备保障人员优化配置方法研究

将装备保障人员按级别分为操作人员、维修人员及管理人员,结合人员进入、培训和退出的状态,构造了状态转移矩阵,求出了各级别人员数量。定义了不同级别针对不同任务的保障效率,按照保障人员完成最高效率任务构建了最优化配置模型。通过实例验证了模型的实用性。     

空战机动决策方法研究

在阐述空战机动决策作用的同时 ,分析对比了几种常用空战机动决策方法 :矩阵对策法、专家系统法、神经网络法和微分对策法等 ;在此基础上引入了一种新的空战机动决策方法——决策影响图法 ,并对其具体应用作了探讨。     

On the reduction of total‐cost and average‐cost MDPs to discounted MDPs

This article provides conditions under which total‐cost and average‐cost Markov decision processes (MDPs) can be reduced to discounted ones. Results are given for transient total‐cost MDPs with transition rates whose values may be greater than one, as well as for average‐cost MDPs with transition probabilities satisfying the condition that there is a state such that the expected time to reach it is uniformly bounded for all initial states and stationary policies. In particular, these reductions imply sufficient conditions for the validity of optimality equations and the existence of stationary optimal policies for MDPs with undiscounted total cost and average‐cost criteria. When the state and action sets are finite, these reductions lead to linear programming formulations and complexity estimates for MDPs under the aforementioned criteria.© 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 66:38–56, 2019     

Maintaining systems with heterogeneous spare parts

We consider the problem of optimally maintaining a stochastically degrading, single‐unit system using heterogeneous spares of varying quality. The system's failures are unannounced; therefore, it is inspected periodically to determine its status (functioning or failed). The system continues in operation until it is either preventively or correctively maintained. The available maintenance options include perfect repair, which restores the system to an as‐good‐as‐new condition, and replacement with a randomly selected unit from the supply of heterogeneous spares. The objective is to minimize the total expected discounted maintenance costs over an infinite time horizon. We formulate the problem using a mixed observability Markov decision process (MOMDP) model in which the system's age is observable but its quality must be inferred. We show, under suitable conditions, the monotonicity of the optimal value function in the belief about the system quality and establish conditions under which finite preventive maintenance thresholds exist. A detailed computational study reveals that the optimal policy encourages exploration when the system's quality is uncertain; the policy is more exploitive when the quality is highly certain. The study also demonstrates that substantial cost savings are achieved by utilizing our MOMDP‐based method as compared to more naïve methods of accounting for heterogeneous spares.     

基于遗传模拟退火算法的OFDMA系统资源分配

针对多用户OFDMA系统,提出了一种基于遗传模拟退火算法的多用户OFDMA系统资源分配策略。在资源分配时,首先假设总功率在载波间均等分配,随后根据比例速率要求确定每个用户需要的子带数,最后引入遗传模拟退火算法求解联合优化中的子带分配,在保证用户间公平性的前提下最大化系统吞吐量。仿真结果表明,该策略系统容量较大,并且近似满足了不同用户间传输速率比例性要求。     

双枝模糊评判在舰炮性能评估中的应用

针对舰炮武器性能指标，运用双枝模糊决策方法对舰炮武器性能进行综合评估。该方法提出了新的论域[-1，1]使评估更能符合人的思维逻辑，能够客观的对舰炮性能进行评估，通过对多中舰炮的具体参数指标进评估，得出各种舰炮的性能优劣的排序，具体的数学模型仿真表明，对舰炮武器性能的评估是行之有效的。